[Hassam]

Bitcoin has captured the imagination of millions of investors in the last year and a half. Many analysts at Wall Street however derisively call Bitcoin a bubble. BItcoin has had all the hall mark of a bubble. People have been comparing Bitcoin bubble with the Tulip Mania that gripped Netherlands in the 17th century. I have read lot of warning on CNBC and Bloomberg issued by central banks asking investors to be careful with the bitcoin mania as it has all the hall marks of a bubble. Last year Bitcoin made the staggering achievement of going above $20K for a small time. After that the market snapped and things started to unravel. Bitcoin prices plunged as fast as they had risen. Take a look at the following Bitcoin weekly chart.

You can see in the above BTCUSD weekly chart very big bullish and bearish weekly candles.

I have started this thread in which I will discuss whether bitcoin will survive into the next decade or not. Most analysts at Wall Street believe bitcoin represents nothing and its ultimate value will be $0. Right now BTCUSD is trading around $7K so it still have got a long way to go before it plunges down to nothing. Personally I was shocked to know that bitcoin mining is a very energy intensive operation and daily bitcoin mining consumes more energy that the country Ireland. If this is true than bitcoin mining has a huge environmental cost and in the long run this thing will drive its value down to zero.

[RobertoMontoya]

This things I leaned from AstroTrading.co on what is trading and how it works? Stock trading entails selling stocks often in an effort to time the marketplace. The objective of stock traders is to maximize temporary market occasions to sell stocks for a revenue, or buy stocks at a low. Some stocks traders are day investors, which indicates they deal numerous times throughout the day. Exciting learnings through proper trading education & lectures.

[Hassam]

The last post was made in 2018 when Bitcoin was crashing hard. It appeared that Bitcoin will not survive the crash and better cryptocurrencies will replace Bitcoin. But Bitcoin is thriving and is still the king cryptocurrency. In 2018 Bitcoin crashed below $10K around $7K. It had infact peaked around $20K. It was a big news. Those who had bought bitcoins and those who had been mining Bitcoins made a lot of profit. The savvy ones sold their bitcoins around the peak. They were right. From $20K, it crashed and went all the way down below $5K. It is now 2020 November. Bitcoin is now trading close to $17K and it seems it is in a strong uptrend.
   
You can see in the above chart, bitcoin was just above $10K in the end of September 2020. In the next two months, it has climbed and is now trading close to $17K. If you had only one bitcoin in September you would have made $7K profit on your $10K investment. Repeatedly I had missed the train and ignored bitcoin considering it to be a passing fad. Bitcoin has got some limitations. One is the massive use of energy during the mining process. Bitcoin mining consumed more energy that a country like Ireland. I believe this is not a good thing. We should avoid technologies that degrade our environment. Consumption of energy caused carbon pollution which is responsible for global warming. It is a good time to take profit because I don't believe bitcoin is going to break above the previous peak of $20K. US Presidential Elections are over. I think this bitcoin rally was being fueled by the US Presidential Election speculation.
   
In the above chart, you can see how bitcoin had crashed in 2019. As you can see in the above chart, bitcoin had a massive fall in your a few days from around $10K to around $5K. Bitcoin is a highly volatile commodity. Yes this is what the banks classify bitcoin with. Banks think that bitcoin is a commodity as it shows all the hallmarks of a commodity. Like commodities, bitcoin is highly volatile.

[Hassam]

Last week I looked at the Bitcoin chart, it was trading around $16,800. Today I looked at the bitcoin chart and it has gained more than $1000 and trading around $18,800. The momentum is very strong on H4, D1, W1 and M1. Take a look at the following daily chart:

   

Now it seems that bitcoin will break above the $20K price level that it had reached a few years back in 2017. It seems but we can never be sure. Right now the momentum is strong and it can be that bitcoin breaks above #20K and goes around $22K or even $23K before it starts falling like the stone like the last time. In just 34 days meaning in just one month bitcoin has risen from $10K to $18K making a gain of 80% which is pretty amazing. In March 2020, bitcoin was hovering around $5K.

There are many reasons for this sudden rise in bitcoin price. I thought it is due to COVID-19. Investors are rushing into bitcoin as a safe haven. But the reasons are entirely different. One reason is Paypal. Paypal has announced that it will soon start receiving cryptocurrencies as a method of payment. Paypal has a huge base around 350 million users. Allowing cryptocurrencies is going to make their use more easy. Federal Reserve Chairman also endorsed digital currencies and said that there can be benefits from making dollar digital.

Paypal accepting bitcoin will be a big boost. Institutional investors now see bitcoin as a modern alternative of gold. This is also one of the main causes of this massive rally. Around Christmas we can see bitcoin making a new all time high. As said, it can be $22K, $23K or even $25K before the market turns down and we see another crash. Bitcoin is highly volatile. You should not forget it.

[Hassam]

Bitcoin reached $19.5K before taking a $2K fall to around $17K. I am looking at the Bitcoin daily chart and wondering if it can repeat the 2017 Christmas Rally when it skyrocketed to $20K before crashing. Will we have a repeat this time. We are close to December now and bitcoin has reached $19K it can make another push and go beyond $30K. Who knows? JP Morgan is predicting bitcoin can reach $140K. Unbelievable. Most analysts are however of this opinion that this time the rally is sustainable and there are some pretty solid reasons why this rally is sustainable and not a bubble like the last time.

Bitcoin is being seen as an alternative investment. People are worried about the stock prices. All the Quantitative Easing being done by the central banks around the globe is going into stock prices that have reached unsustainable high levels. Bitcoin is an alternative which is independent of the central banks and the stock market. As said before, bitcoin is going mainstream. This is one of the reasons that is sustaining the rally. Another payment company Square has also joined the bitcoin bandwagon after Paypal. Finally bitcoin has started taking over the role of gold as a store of value. Bitcoin can be used now in the payment system. This use will increase over time. Gold lags far behind and is not used often in the payment system. So investors are thinking of bitcoin as a long term replacement of gold.

Next few months are going to show how far this bitcoin rally goes. I am already seeing  bitcoin rally coming to an end. Check the chart below and make your judgement. Bitcoin price is falling sharply. We don't know if this is a retracement or a change of trend. We will have to wait and see.
   

[Hassam]

Last week I looked at Bitcoin chart and it was falling. Bitcoin fell around $4K from close to $20K to around $16K. Bitcoin closed last week at $17K. Today is Monday 30th November and when I take a look at the chart, Bitcoin opened with a jump of $1K and is trading around $18.5K. EMA 50 acted as a goo support. Take a look at Bitcoin H8 chart below;
   
Does it mean bitcoin is going to make a new price record this year near the Christmas and the new year time and make many investors happy? It seems like this is going to happen. Bitcoin is again bullish as pointed out earlier by a number of decisions made by big financial institutions. Coming back to bitcoin potential in the coming weeks. The weekly chart is showing a big bearish candle. On H2 we have EMA50 above EMA20 meaning we have a downtrend. Direction looks downward. I was wondering how did the $140K prediction by JP Morgan materialize. $140K look far away from $18K that we have now.

I am looking at a bitcoin programming book. I know Python. We can use Python to code bitcoin ecosystem. Good for me! I will continue looking at the bitcoin charts in the coming weeks. I am visualizing a big downtrend. Price can touch $15K meaning another $3K drop in the price before the close of the year. I can be wrong. But this is the thought that is coming to my mind right now when I am looking at bitcoin H1, H2, H3 charts.

[Hassam]

Bitcoin finally made the breakthrough above $20K. It briefly touched $23.7K and then fell and is now planning another move above $23K it seems. You can take a look at the BTC/USD daily chart below. Uptrend looks pretty strong. Look at the two short term EMAs and the long term SMAs they are all positioned above each other which means uptrend is very strong.
   
In 2017, bitcoin had touched $20K but then it crashed and fell all way down to around $5K in the coming months. Analysts say this time is different. 2017 rally was fueled by retail investors.Now we have billionaire investors like Paul Tudor Jones and Stanely Druckenmiller behind this rally. Companies like Paypal, Fidelity, Square and MicroStrategy have also invested in bitcoin. In short, we are being told this time the rally is going to go way up. Some analysts are saying bitcoin will again hit a wall in 2021 and there will be a sell of in the first few months of 2021 as many investors will be tempted to take profit. Bitcoin price can fall 20-30% in the coming months. We have to wait have see.

Remember price does not move in straight lines. If you have been trading for a while you must have understood this fact by now. Bitcoin price will go up, make a retracement consolidate and then go up and then fall and then go up. Bitcoin is here to stay. It is not a bubble. In future it may change the way we look at money.

[Hassam]

Bitcoin today is trading above $24K. I remember the day in 2010 when I received an email. I had joined a number of newsletters. In the email the person said I had purchased Bitcoin for $0.01 and now it is trading at $1. He was happy on making 100% return on his investment. He advised me to buy Bitcoin as he thought price would go above $100. I looked at the Bitcoin chart and thought about it. But in those days we have a lot of bad publicity about Bitcoin and how it was being used to transfer money in the underworld. A few months later that person told me the price has gone above $10. He was mighty happy. Then Bitcoin price went above $100 and then above $200 and rest is history now. Most of the time we are wiser after the event. Future is always foggy. It takes a lot of foresight to see through the fog in the future. When the future becomes present and the fog vanishes we can see clearly what was it in the fog. But then it is always late. Having the foresight to see the future potential of a technology is a challenging thing. Very few people have that foresight. Even if you have the foresight, you need luck on your side. Without luck nothing works.

In those years Bitcoin was getting a lot of negative publicity. This was one of the reasons that was hindering small investors to invest in Bitcoin. Another deterrence was Bitcoin Blockchain technology is difficult to understand. It is heck of a job to understand how the Bitcoin stuff works. What are wallets, what is hashing etc. Whatever it was the chance of a lifetime. If I had bought just 500 bitcoins for $1 on the initial email, today it would be $23K*500=$11,500K. Moral of the story: Don't fret over it now. There are many people in the world who did what I did. Take a look at the following chart.
   
Bitcoin is now mainstream. As said before billionaire investors are now behind this rally. Wall Street has finally embraced Bitcoin and major hedge funds and big banks are now investing in Bitcoin. We should except this rally to go high. $100K is still far away. Wait and see if Bitcoin can reach $100K as predicted by some influential analysts.

[Hassam]

Bitcoin made another high this time and reached quite close to $28K an increase of $5K from the previous high around $23K. Analysts have started this recent bitcoin craze with the Tulip Mania that engulfed Holland in the 17th century when the price of tulip flower skyrocketed. People sold their houses and invested in that mania. When the bubble burst it was really painful for many investors. Even today we study Tulip Mania in economics as well as behavior finance. Study of Tulip Mania teaches how bubbles start and how they end. When a bubble bursts it is always very painful for most who had invested in it. Take a look at the following bitcoin H12 chart:
   
Yes, bitcoin can reach $50K now that it has reached almost $30K. After that it can even make a try for $100K. But just like all bubbles and just like all other manias, this bitcoin craze will also come to an end. What we have ask seriously is what does bitcoin really represent? Is it providing a useful service to the society like replacing the existing payment systems or stuff like that? Do we have something that is going to change the present financial system in a major way in the coming future? If we can satisfactorily answer these questions, we have something solid that will survive the test of time. If we cannot satisfactorily answer the above questions that we have a mania that will soon hurt many of us who are investing heavily in bitcoin. This is what I think. Bitcoin is a technology. Just like all new technologies one day it will go obsolete. Maybe I am wrong. According to the analyst on CNBC, this bitcoin rally will peak in early January. Let's wait for 2-3 weeks and see if this prediction comes true.

[Hassam]

A few days back I wrote bitcoin will soon touch $30K. This has happened. Bitcoin came close to $30K. To be precise it was $29.3K. Now we can think about bitcoin touching $50K. Is bitcoin a good investment? Maybe. I still consider it to be a bubble and highly risky. Total market capitalization of bitcoin is around $450 Billion. Market capitalization of Apple stock AAPL is more than $1 Trillion. Market capitalization of gold is more than $13 Trillion. Comparing present bitcoin market capitalization with gold, talk about bitcoin replacing gold is too early at this moment. Keeping in view the market capitalization of bitcoin right now, bitcoin is a risky investment. Why? With a small market capitalization bitcoin can be easily manipulated by a few big investors popularly known as the whales. This is the reason why we are seeing so much volatility in bitcoin market. Anytime we can see bitcoin crashing to something below $15K easily.